When protests become a threat to authoritarian rule: the case of environmental protests in Viet Nam

This paper argues that the decision of an authoritarian regime to use repression depends both on the repressing agent and the costs as well as the threat perception. This is illustrated in the comparison between two environmental protests in Viet Nam. In 2015, the Vietnamese press reported that police had used tear gas against protesters opposing massive pollution by the Vinh Tan 2 thermal power plant but later treated the violent protesters with leniency. In contrast, the 2016 protest against the Formosa Ha-Tinh Steel Corporation was widely censored in the press and numerous peaceful protesters were arrested and harshly punished. The Vinh Tan case was not perceived as a threat and the costs of repression were judged to be high, while in the case of Formosa, the initial denials of responsibility raised the costs for the regime and the movement that emerged eventually was perceived to be a threat to the regime.