The effect of short-term performance fluctuations on long-term performance: evidence from the English Premier League

Purpose: This paper aims to examine the effect of short-term performance fluctuations on long-term performance of football clubs. Design/methodology/approach: This study did not develop any hypothesis for statistical testing. Instead, a database composing of 24 seasons of English Premier Club clubs’ performance was used to analyse for temporal fluctuations of club performance and examined whether such fluctuations would be substantiated in the long run. Findings: Findings showed that club performance exhibited a non-unit root nature, which in turn suggested that clubs’ long-term performance was only temporally affected by short-term performance fluctuations, leading to the evidence that club performance tended to return to the club’s long-run equilibrium after experiencing temporary high or low positions. Originality/value: Findings of this paper provide important information regarding the cost-benefit implications of the reactions of the club management to boost or rectify short-term performance fluctuations by, for example, replacing the club manager or head coach.