Polycentric Power Plays: Gulf Agency and the Dynamics of China’s AI Diplomacy

This article offers the first systematic, comparative analysis of China’s AI diplomacy across all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates – foregrounding Gulf governments’ agency in negotiating the intersection of Chinese digital infrastructure and global AI governance. Challenging portrayals of the region as a monolithic or passive recipient of external influence, the study advances a polycentric negotiation framework that integrates theories of norm diffusion, strategic hedging, and co-production to reveal how Gulf states selectively absorb, filter, or recalibrate Chinese technological offerings and regulatory models. Drawing on systematic documentary analysis and comparative case studies, the research uncovers significant intra-GCC divergence: while some states exhibit high infrastructure dependence with limited normative alignment, others compartmentalize Chinese participation and prioritize regulatory convergence with Western frameworks. The findings highlight Gulf states’ strategic use of digital sovereignty and alignment flexibility to maximize autonomy amid intensifying US–China competition. Ultimately, the analysis demonstrates how Gulf agency and institutional innovation shape the global diffusion and localization of AI norms, providing a replicable model for understanding digital diplomacy in other geopolitical contexts.