An application of the continuous equilibrium modelling approach in understanding the geography of air passenger flows in a multi-airport region

This paper presents an innovative and first attempt to apply the continuous equilibrium approach in modelling the geography of air passenger flows. The Hong Kong-Pearl River Delta region is used as a case study; and choices of air travellers for both international and domestic flights are modelled over space. The performances of the calibrated models are tested and proven to be in good agreement with the actual market shares of air passenger turnovers of the four major competing airports in the Hong Kong-Pearl River Delta region in 2000. As a step further, we use the model to forecast about the air traffic distribution and catchment areas of the four airports under four alternative scenarios of regional airport competition and airport co-ordination. In future applications, the modelling approach is capable of handling simultaneous changes in the spatial dynamics of a multi-airport region and of catering to the needs of policy relevant research.