Adapting to extreme risk of coastal bridges under typhoons in a life-cycle context

Coastal bridges in tropical cyclone-prone regions face significant risks from the combined effects of storm surge and wave loads, which are further amplified by uncertainties associated with climate change. As climate change drives increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, the long-term risk to these critical infrastructures is expected to escalate, threatening financial stability, societal well-being, and infrastructural reliability. This study develops a framework to assess the extreme risk of coastal bridges in a life-cycle context, accounting for both traditional failure mechanisms, such as deck unseating, and dynamic structural responses influenced by wave load time histories, bearing connections, and overturning moments. To address the non-stationary characteristics of tropical cyclones under climate change, the framework utilizes a stochastic non-homogeneous Poisson process to model evolving hazard conditions. Additionally, new risk metrics, including statistical moments of long-term loss and tail risk indicators, are introduced to quantify extreme risks and inform climate-resilient adaptation strategies.